BoJ may indicate underlying inflation is near the 2% target, sources say
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) could indicate later this month that underlying inflation has reached nearly its 2% target, according to three sources familiar with the central bank’s thinking. Such a signal would underscore the BoJ’s willingness to resume raising interest rates in the coming months.
While the announcement would be largely symbolic, it could strengthen market expectations for a rate increase in December and demonstrate that the central bank remains prepared to lift borrowing costs at relatively short intervals.
The sources said after increasing rates in September, some BoJ policymakers remain cautious about another hike this month. They would prefer to assess more economic data and evaluate how previous rate increases have influenced domestic financial conditions before making another move.
Market reaction
As of writing, the USD/JPY pair is up 0.15% on the day at 158.15.
Bank of Japan FAQs
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%.
The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance.
The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance.
A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.