19 Jun 2015
EUR/USD forecast: it’s all about Greece – Commerzbank and OCBC Bank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - EUR/USD failed to advance beyond the mid-1.1400s on Thursday, retreating to the current 1.1340 area instead, as Greek woes keep weighing on sentiment.
Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, noted the pair “has eroded the one year downtrend at 1.1321 and the 1.1380/87 resistance (4th June high) and we would allow for a further attempt on the topside towards the 1.1468 May high and 1.1534, the February high. Despite the break higher, the intraday Elliott counts are suggesting that we are likely to struggle to overcome the 1.1534 high and are actually quite negative”.
FX Strategist Emmanuel Ng at OCBC Bank added “Amid reports of deposit flight from Greek banks, expect markets to remain inherently nervous towards the EUR with an emergency summit of EZ leaders on Monday with the ECB governing council also scheduled to hold another conference call later today. In the interim and despite dovish overtones from the ECB’s monthly bulletin, the 1.1400 ceiling is deemed to be at risk in the current dollar environment while 1.1345 may offer initial support on dips before 1.1300”.
Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, noted the pair “has eroded the one year downtrend at 1.1321 and the 1.1380/87 resistance (4th June high) and we would allow for a further attempt on the topside towards the 1.1468 May high and 1.1534, the February high. Despite the break higher, the intraday Elliott counts are suggesting that we are likely to struggle to overcome the 1.1534 high and are actually quite negative”.
FX Strategist Emmanuel Ng at OCBC Bank added “Amid reports of deposit flight from Greek banks, expect markets to remain inherently nervous towards the EUR with an emergency summit of EZ leaders on Monday with the ECB governing council also scheduled to hold another conference call later today. In the interim and despite dovish overtones from the ECB’s monthly bulletin, the 1.1400 ceiling is deemed to be at risk in the current dollar environment while 1.1345 may offer initial support on dips before 1.1300”.